Fantasy meets reality: Western Highway Buangor to Ararat

In 2020, I reviewed the economic appraisal and crash history of the Western Highway in Victoria.

I did this to help those making legal challenges to the Western Highway Upgrade project and its effect on sacred cultural sites between Buangor and Ararat. They’ve now agreed that I can post my findings for wider reading.

This article summarises my findings and views; you can download my original review here for the full story.

Fundamentally, I believe this project has no economic basis. The 2012 EES gave the Beaufort-Ararat upgrade a return of 50-60 cents in the dollar, but the calculations are wrong; I’d put it at 30 cents or less.

Traffic will not ‘double by 2025’ as the Government still claims to this day. Truck traffic is not all intercapital or interstate, and some of it might be removed by rail freight initiatives (although they never seem to deliver their claimed benefits either).

Its safety benefits will be far less than is implied. The Buangor-Ararat section is actually very safe; no-one has died there for nearly 20 years, and its crash rate is half the State average. 

The parts of the Western Highway that have been improved still experience deaths and injuries to this day. Some show higher crash rates than the ‘unimproved’ Buangor-Ararat section. There’s no guarantee that the project will save lives, as is often claimed.

The project’s social and environmental impacts were dramatically underestimated. Deep community concerns, centred on the aboriginal cultural significance of trees and land affected, were omitted or ignored.

State and Federal governments continue to defend the upgrade project and their political decisions. They do this whilst making fantastical claims about future traffic growth, road safety effects and economic worth which have no basis in reality.

The Western Highway is part of Australia’s National Highway network. As such it’s majority-funded by the Commonwealth Government, with top-up support from the State.

It’s the primary highway between Melbourne and Adelaide, as well as linking towns and communities along its length. It also forms a significant part of the intrastate road freight network, carrying agricultural produce to Melbourne and the ports.

The Environment Effects Statement for the project was published back in 2012. It covered the section from Beaufort to Ararat.

Source:, February 2022

The Beaufort to Buangor part was upgraded by April 2016.

The cultural heritage concerns are centred on the Buangor to Ararat part, where construction has started but has been on hold while court proceedings have taken place.

Road Projects Victoria currently has this to say about the wider Ballarat-Stawell project:

“More than 6000 vehicles travel the Western Highway west of Ballarat each day, including 1500 trucks. This traffic is expected to double by 2025.

In the ten years to January 2021, there have been 152 crashes on the Western Highway between Ballarat and Stawell, including 18 fatalities, and 94 people seriously injured, it is vital for the safety of the community that this road is duplicated.”

Source:, February 2022

Traffic volumes have changed little over the last 13 years, and growth has stalled during COVID restrictions. The idea that they’ll double over the next three years is pure fantasy.

The 10-year accident history to January 2021 is quoted for a longer stretch of road (Ballarat to Stawell). I’ve established that no fewer than 6 of the 18 deaths and 10 of the 94 serious injuries happened on sections that were already improved (completed in 2016).

Dan Andrews and other politicians like to quote the 18 deaths as a reason for the upgrade, saying it will save lives. However, 6 deaths over 5 years means that the death rate for the improved sections is the same as that for the unimproved ones (12 deaths over 10 years). There’s no guarantee that the project will save lives on this road.

You can read further details in my original review here.

Published by William

I’m an independent transport planner based in Victoria, Australia.

5 thoughts on “Fantasy meets reality: Western Highway Buangor to Ararat

  1. Hi William

    Your expertise and work shines through in the original report. However I see no comparison with rail instead of road, much easier to electrify and reduce emissions to zero. No tyres required. A much greater carrying capacity and efficiency. No mention of social and environmental destruction. However the new post does mention some of these issues, and for that I thank you.

    Regards, John Merory


    Liked by 1 person

  2. Thanks William
    It was a no brainer but still required a formal assessment. If there had been any concerns about safety – and these could not be justified, the simplest solution would have put up some warning signs and introduce a lower speed limit such as 80kph. The abuse of proper process is breathtaking, but it was the lies/dishonesty by government and the vindictive approach to the plaintiff that has upset me most.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. That the proposed project has no economic value is agreed with. The fact that the project during construction and operation makes no contribution to Victoria’s net zero emission targets is regrettable

    Liked by 1 person

  4. William,
    Your comments are accurate and disappointingly will be ignored. The Government’s own population projections for the shires to the west suggest decline or stability in population, further undermining forecasts of growth. Governments of both stripes seem unable to question road projects. Institutionally the demise of VicRoads may have been a cause for thinking more objective decision making may develop, but I fear that policy is really being left to the economics/engineering consultancies, who have a vested interest in works proceeding. Also communities are unrealistic about the benefits of roads. Politicians seldom lead, but often follow.
    Bill Unkles


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