Melbourne Airport Rail: a patronage discussion

When Melbourne Airport Rail opens, and even if air travel resumes its pre-COVID growth, the trains could be less than half-full at the busiest time of day.
SkyBus and airport trains together could take one-third of journeys to and from the airport. This is a high mode share by Australian standards, but continued growth means that traffic queues on the Tullamarine Freeway will not disappear.
There are of course many uncertainties that could affect these predictions; air travel might not recover to pre-COVID levels, especially if we get our act together on emissions reduction.